The study, led by Professor Matthew Paterson, argues that while opposition to net zero is a prominent strategy for Reform UK, Labour could alienate voters seeking more ambitious climate action by retreating from these commitments. Instead, the research proposes that making climate policies fairer and delivering tangible benefits for lower-income households could lead to electoral gains.
The fragmentation of British politics is reshaping electoral pressures around climate change. The traditional cross-party consensus has collapsed, with Reform UK campaigning against net zero and the Green Party championing more ambitious climate action. This creates a dilemma for Labour, which faces pressure from both directions.
Researchers highlight that most Reform voters do not necessarily oppose climate action, suggesting that opposition to net zero is not a widespread rejection of climate policy. The Green Party's gains are also linked to dissatisfaction with economic inequality and the cost-of-living crisis.
The paper suggests that rather than weakening ambitions, Labour should focus on ensuring the benefits of the net zero transition are shared more equitably. Policies like investment in home insulation, warmer homes, and affordable public transport could address inequalities and reduce emissions, while also tackling economic frustrations driving support for populist parties.
“"Our research suggests that abandoning net zero could be electorally misguided. The more promising approach is to make sure climate policies deliver tangible benefits for ordinary people, particularly those on lower incomes. Warmer homes, lower energy bills and better public transport can all help tackle the cost-of-living crisis while reducing emissions. Making social justice central to climate policy could be crucial to maintaining public support and keeping the UK on track to tackle climate change."
